Joe Biden would make one hell of a limbo dancer. No matter how low the bar drops on his approval-rating floor, Biden always manages to dance under it. At least in the Civiqs tracking poll, Biden hit a new low of 30/58 on job approval, suggesting that his floor may actually be somewhere in the 20s.
Here’s the chart, which shows approval falling slightly faster than disapproval is rising:
Why might that be? It’s because Biden’s approval rating is dropping steeply among Democrats, who have long been the main group keeping his ratings as high as they have been. Three months ago, Democrats’ approval of Biden was 76/10, but now it’s 64/16, and 20% refuse to say:
Consider this the final phase of Biden’s confidence-crisis cascade. We have seen this in the media coverage of Biden the last couple of weeks, especially after the White House appeared to have no real strategy for the post-Dobbs political environment. It has become open season on Biden’s incompetent governance as activists and other Democratic officials bail on Biden’s sinking ship. To some extent, that becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy as Democratic voters feel open opposition to Biden becomes more acceptable on their side of the aisle. And that means that Biden’s floor may still be nowhere in sight yet. If it even exists.
That extends to independents as well, where Biden also hit new lows on this iteration of the Civiqs tracking poll. He’s at 18/68 among indies, both new records for this demo. One has to imagine that this reflects the exodus of Democrat-leaning indies from Biden, but Civiqs doesn’t provide any measure for that.
Even in the demos where Biden has stronger support, the news is poor. First off, there are only two where Biden’s above water: Democrats and black voters. He’s only up among the latter by 56/23, worse than the 64/16 among Democrats overall and really bad for Democrats in a demo they need to hold on a 90/10 basis in elections. Women disapprove 34/51, Hispanics 35/49, and Biden can’t get to 40% in any age bracket. Among 18-34-year-old voters, he’s at 21/60.
And since Civiqs provides state-by-state approval ratings, let’s note a few important midterm environments:
- Colorado: 32/54
- Florida: 29/59
- Georgia: 25/62
- Iowa: 28/59
- Michigan: 32/56
- Missouri: 22/69
- Nevada: 29/60
- North Carolina: 30/59
- Ohio: 26/63
- Wisconsin: 32/58
The only two states that have Biden above water now are Hawaii and Vermont. And Biden is only barely above water in Vermont, 42/40.
The state ratings are the most helpful from Civiqs, of course. They tend to run a bit more negative on Biden than the polling consensus does, but not a whole lot more negative. Today’s RCP chart shows the same trend as Civiqs, if not the same amplitude:
The confidence-crisis cascade is clearly accelerating in the rest of the polling, too. Democrats know it, the media knows it, and the only question is whether Biden will recognize it before the midterms deliver a body blow to his agenda.