November 10, 2020 at 10:21 AM EST
Ohio’s streak of voting for the winner is over. Here’s how the 10 states likeliest to pick the winner did.
By Youjin Shin, Atthar Mirza and Kevin Uhrmacher
No Republican has ever won the presidency without Ohio, and until recently, unsuccessful Democratic campaigns were able to keep the race for the state’s 18 electoral votes tight. But Ohio took a right-hand turn in 2016, backing Trump by eight points. Trump posted a similar margin over Biden, meaning the state’s run as a reliable indicator of presidential winners since 1964 has come to an end.
Biden did get a win in Nevada, the next-most-predictive state, which has picked the president in all but two elections since 1960. Florida stuck with Trump despite picking the winning candidate since 1996.
Three Rust Belt states — Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania — each flipped back into the Democratic column after backing Trump in 2016. Those states have voted for the winning candidate consecutively since 2008.