Electoral College Coalitions in 2016: Is a Shift Ahead?

Sean Trende, RCP
This is an excerpt from my chapter on the Electoral College and 2016, contained in the forthcoming anthology from Rowman and Littlefield, “The Surge.” The book is now available for pre-order and will be released next week. Some verbiage is modestly altered in the interests of continuity, and only major breaks are denoted with ellipses.It is a bit of an oddity that most analyses of American elections focus on the popular vote, either implicitly or explicitly. Consider political science models, almost all of which explicitly purport to show a candidateÂ’s likely share of the two-party vote….