Paths to US election victory: what Trump and Biden need to win – The Guardian

Paths to victory remain in the US presidential race for both Donald Trump and Joe Biden, but Biden has more ways to win and appears to be running stronger state-to-state based on the places – cities, mainly – where large absentee votes have yet to be counted.

Biden leads the electoral tally 238-213. Adding Alaska for Trump – which had not been called but where the result is not in doubt – gives the president 216.

From there, six states remained to be called as Wednesday dawned in the US: Nevada, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvania. A final electoral vote, in the second district of Maine, which splits its electoral votes, could fall for either candidate.

Trump’s paths

The simplest way for Trump to find the 54 electoral votes he needs would be to win Pennsylvania and at least three other states. If he does not win Pennsylvania, Trump must make a clean sweep of all five remaining states to get to 270.

But a huge Democratic vote share remained to be tallied in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, meaning Trump could have difficulty hanging on to a narrow lead gained elsewhere in the state. Elsewhere, including in Wisconsin and Michigan, Trump appeared to be in even deeper trouble, in Wisconsin because he was losing with most of the vote counted, and in Michigan because the outstanding vote was expected to be heavily Democratic.

Biden’s paths

Biden had many paths to find his remaining 32 electoral votes. His most likely path lay through the Great Lakes states, where Pennsylvania and Michigan combined would net 36 votes.

Without Pennsylvania, Biden could win by winning Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada, where he held a clear but narrow lead. A Biden victory in either of the two reddest states in the mix – Georgia or North Carolina – would almost certainly foretell wins elsewhere and a Biden victory.

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