10.30pm It’s been over two hours since I, a Canadian amateur, called Florida. The corrupt US networks have simply ceased talking about it. The sun has gone down on talk of the Sunshine State.
I get why they held off initially. They were waiting for the Dementia Kid to flip something – North Carolina, Georgia, anywhere – in order that they could report the situation as a Trump hold rendered irrelevant by a Biden gain.
But it’s been two hours and there’s no flip and Trump is 400,000 votes ahead …and the networks are apparently willing to destroy whatever remnants of their integrity survive to go all-in on a Biden blowout that was never going to happen.
The score so far:
10.20pm As I mentioned on the Election Day edition of The Mark Steyn Show, in Warren Harding’s GOP landslide of one hundred years ago he won both his Democrat predecessor Woodrow Wilson’s district in Princeton, NJ and his vice-presidential opponent Franklin Roosevelt’s town of Hyde Park, NY.
Biden has spent the campaign representing himself as Lunchbucket Joe from Scranton, PA versus a billionaire’s boy from Fifth Avenue. How’s that shtick playing in that corner of PA? Returns from Lackawanna County:
Trump 60 per cent;
Biden 39 per cent.
10.10pm Even if the corrupt American media haven’t called Florida, the Chinese markets have. Behold the yuan, nosediving like Hunter in a crack house:
As Laura Rosen Cohen says below of the night so far:
This is an excellent FU to China.
10.05pm Philadelphia has announced it will not be counting any more mail-in ballots tonight. They’re all tuckered out and need to go home.
Pennsylvania is Belarus.
PS According to CNN, Biden has already won.
10pm Even crap polls have consequences. Whatever happens, there will be no Biden blowout. The worst-case scenario is that, if Joe wins, it will be close. That means that Trump will be perceived to have outpolled expectations. Which means it will be harder for “moderate” RINO squish NeverTrumpers to take back the GOP. Why go back to Mitt when, whatever Trump’s final tally, it’ll be better than Romney’s lousy score in 2012?
So the polls are completely wrong. There will be no Biden landslide – and any transformative elements of the race so far are on the Trump side of the ledger. He turns out to be doing exactly what the pundit class said he’d failed to do: expand his appeal from “angry old white men” to all kinds of other folks. The GOP has been trying to do this for years – through jelly-spined squishery, pandering bromides, and all the usual rubbish dignified as “outreach” – when it turns out that what they really want is a guy who grooves around on stage to “YMCA”.
By the way, the polls are wrong on everything, not just the top of the ticket. Lindsey Graham, for example, just won his Senate race handily, notwithstanding the tens of millions showered on the no-name Dem by Barbra Streisand, Lady Gaga et al.
9.45pm This is on course to be the biggest turnout in a US election since 1896. That means that all the turnout models are junk, which is why the polls are junk. It also means that the “national” poll number – which, as a practical matter, is meaningless but the easiest to poll, and the one on which the pollsters preserved a measure of semi-credibility in 2016 – is this time going to be as way off as other polls. Whatever happens in the electoral college, Joe Biden is not going to win the popular vote by anything like the polls have been saying for months.
The pollsters are quack soothsayers purporting to be able to read entrails while not even putting the germane entrails in the pot.
9.35pm The score so far: Biden 129 Trump 123. The betting odds have in recent minutes flipped from Biden 55 on to Trump 60-something. So even hardened gamblers are saps and rubes for polls and propaganda.
9.25pm Has Florida seceded from the Electoral College? I called it over an hour ago, but ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN and even Fox seem to have erased it from the map.
Conversely, they were all happy to call New York on the basis of 0 per cent actual returns, and their calling of Virginia a couple of hours ago seems a wee bit premature.
9.15pm If Trump pulls this out, it will be a rebuke to the stone-dead moronic inevitablism of the wanker media: “Oh, Orange Man was just the last gasp of old white males, and a bunch of them have died off since 2016.”
Maybe. But he seems to have made compensating inroads among the black vote, the Hispanic vote, the younger vote that has nibbled away at the Democrat plantation in vital places.
9.10pm The non-calling of Florida by the networks is becoming faintly preposterous, no? The reason is that it would necessarily change the trajectory of their coverage – from the assumption of a Biden victory to can he still pull this out?
It’s clear that the polls are either incompetent or propaganda. The silence of the network “decision desks” is like state TV in a banana republic.
9pm My electoral-college tally: Trump 102 Biden 91. (I’ve given Trump Fla, although the networks are lagging a little. Gee, there’s a surprise.)
8.50pm Trump’s snaffling of Hispanic votes is quite amazing:
Among Hispanics, Biden is 15 points down on Hillary in Georgia, 17 points down on Hillary in Ohio, and a fatal 19 points down on Hillary in Florida.
So far it’s looking like the polls will be off by more than in 2016. Nobody should ever take these guys seriously again.
In response to these developments, Trevor Noah, who is everything but funny, has had one of his 137 gag writers create an amusing Gif showing a space laser wiping out Florida.
8.45pm The score to date: Biden 91 Trump 73. As yet, no flipped states.
Having failed to win Florida, the Dems now need to figure out a way to steal it. They’re good at that, so one should assume the operation is underway.
8.35pm The Great Adjustment is underway. From 538’s Nathaniel Rakich:
It’s worth noting, though, that our forecast thinks Biden still has a 66 in 100 shot to win the White House even if Trump carries Florida.
Just for the record, as the evening began, The Economist gave Biden a 97 per cent chance of victory.
8.30pm If those Trump gains among black and Hispanic voters are correct, what’s behind it? Some 538-type analysts say it’s because black and Hispanic men are attracted to Trump’s “macho shtick” – which would be racist if I said it. More obvious, it seems to me, is that, after six months of whiney white trustiefundie women and their trans shock troops appropriating the issue of “racial justice”, they’re sick of it.
8.15pm This is data analysis from The New York Times, so take that for what’s it worth. But from an analysis of precincts where all the vote is in they’ve broken out the various shifts from one party to another.
On the Dem side are all the ones we’ve been hearing about from the media – Trump’s loss of older voters, suburban women, counties that voted for Obama, white men with high-school educations, etc.
But how big are the shifts? Seniors have moved by two points to the Democrats, Obama counties one point, white high-school half-a-point, rural voters less than half.
On the other hand, what about all the big shifts the media never mentioned? Suburban voters have moved half-a-point to the GOP, majority black areas three points to Racey-Racey-Racist Trump, urban precincts five-and-a-half points to the Republicans, majority Hispanic precincts eleven-and-a-half points.
Trump’s won Florida. It’s not official yet, but take it from me. Biden’s job just got a whole lot difficult.
8.05pm Somewhat surprisingly to me, my own state of New Hampshire and the lone electoral-college vote from Maine’s Second Congressional District are still in play. Even if they ultimately go Biden, the fact that they’re close is a good sign for Trump.
7.55pm Florida results are beginning to dribble out. Broward County (Fort Lauderdale) has Biden up 33 points. That sounds good, but Hillary was up by 35 in Broward four years ago, and that was one of the key signs that she hadn’t done well enough in the Greater Miami area to overcome the Trump vote elsewhere in the state.
7.50pm Mitch McConnell has survived in Kentucky. The media had suggested he was in trouble: Amy McGrath had raised a hundred million bucks, and was giving him a run for her money. In the end it wasn’t close: 59-36.
7.25pm A point to bear in mind:
If news organizations declare Joe Biden the mathematical president-elect, he plans to address the nation as its new leader, even if President Trump continues to fight in court, advisers tell Axios.
Hmm. By “news organizations”, they mean The New York Times, CNN, NBC… Those organizations will be itching to declare Biden the victor as soon as possible, and put Trump on the defensive, as the guy declining to accept the will of the people. It is reported that, if and when he does speak, Joe will be announcing certain cabinet picks. In other words, the plan is that he’ll be acting as president from around 10pm tonight – and Trump will be reduced to a squatter refusing to give up the apartment.
7pm Eastern: Welcome to Election Night 2020. It’s been a wacky year and I’ve been out and about far less than I would normally have been, so I don’t entirely trust my instincts. But I’m reasonably confident that Trump will win – but not so confident that he won’t have it stolen from him, as is already underway in Pennsylvania and elsewhere.
Over on the other side, Joe Biden hasn’t put a foot right, and he rounded it out with a final appearance in the only state he campaigns in (the one half-an-hour from his home) in which he introduced his granddaughter Finnegan:
Introducing fans to his family, he put his arm around his granddaughter’s shoulder saying “this is my son, Beau Biden who a lot of you helped elect to the Senate in Delaware.”
Which would be an odd thing to say to Pennsylvania voters, even if Beau Biden had ever been elected to the Senate.
He then said “this is my granddaughter, Natalie” before noticing his mistake and saying “no wait, we got the wrong one.”
Biden then puts his arm around his granddaughter’s shoulder and says “this is Natalie, this is Beau’s daughter” before embracing “Beau’s number two” his granddaughter Finnegan.
Unless Millsfield is the model, we’re in for a long night. Mark Steyn Club members are welcome to give their take in the comments below. Any tips on when the looting starts – 9.47pm? 10.12? – are also welcome.
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Oh, and if you’re seriously chafing under the lockdown and looting, there’s no better way to cock a snook at the lockdown than by booking a berth on our Third Annual Steyn Cruise sailing the Med next year – and with Conrad Black, Michele Bachmann, John O’Sullivan and Douglas Murray among our shipmates. We’ll be attempting some seaboard versions of The Mark Steyn Show, Tales for Our Time, our Sunday Poem and other favorite features. If you’re minded to give it a go, don’t leave it too late: as with most travel and accommodations, the price is more favorable the earlier you book – and, if the lockdown ever does gets totally lifted, why use your newfound freedom of movement just to visit the county fair or see X-Men 47 at the multiplex when you can bestride the world like a cruising colossus?